Announcement of the National Bureau of statistics on the Final Verification of GDP in 2021

According to China's GDP accounting and data release system (hereinafter referred to as GDP), annual GDP accounting includes two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. Recently, according to the annual report of the National Bureau of Statistics, the financial accounts of the Ministry of Finance and the annual financial data of relevant Departments, the National Bureau of Statistics has carried out the final verification of the GDP data in 2021. The main results are as follows:

According to the final verification, in 2021, the total current price of GDP is 114,923.7 billion yuan, which is 556.7 billion yuan more than that of the preliminary accounting figure; in terms of constant prices, it is 8.4 percent higher than that of the previous year and 0.3 percentage point higher than that of the preliminary accounting. The data of three industries and each sector are shown in the attached table.

It is hereby announced.

Annex: 

1. Comparison of Final Verified GDP and Preliminary Accounting GDP in 2021

2. Explanation of Annual Accounting of China's GDP

Comparison of Final Verified GDP and Preliminary Accounting GDP in 2021

Note: some of the data in the table, such as GDP total amount and composition, are not equal to the sum of various industries (industries), which is due to the rounding error of numerical value and has not been mechanically adjusted.

Annotations:

Quarterly GDP Accounting Instructions of China

1. Overview on Quarterly GDP Accounting

1.1 Basic Concepts

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country.

In the practice of national accounting, gross domestic product is calculated using three approaches, namely production approach, income approach and expenditure approach, which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles. The production approach refers to remove the value of intermediate goods and services from the value of goods and services created in the production process, and to get the value-added. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = total output - intermediate inputs. The GDP by production approach is the sum of value-added by production approach of various industries of national economy. The income approach refers to accounting the production activities from the point of generating income during the production process. Under this accounting method, the sum of the value-added obtained from four parts: workers compensation, net taxes on production, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = workers compensation + net taxes on production + depreciation of fixed assets + operating surplus. The GDP by income approach equals to the sum of value-added by income approach of various industries of national economy. GDP by expenditure approach refers to the method of measuring GDP from the perspective of the final uses of production activities. The final uses include final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net export of goods and services.

Constant price GDP is the conversion of GDP calculated according to the current price into the value calculated according to the price of a fixed base period, so as to eliminate the influence of price change factors, so that the value of different periods can be compared.

1.2 Accounting Coverage

1.2.1 Production Coverage

Production range of GDP accounting includes the following four parts: first, the production of goods and services provided to or ready to provide to other units by the producers; second, self-sufficient production of goods for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers; third, self-sufficient production of knowledge carrier products for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers, excluding similar activities undertaken by the household sector; housing services; fourth, housing services provided by owner-occupied housing, as well as self-sufficient production of household and personal services provided by paid family service personnel. Production range does not include unpaid household and personal services, nor no units controlled natural activities (such as wild, non-cultivated forest, berries or wild berries natural growth, the natural growth of the number of fish in the public sea), etc.

1.2.2 Geographical Scope

The GDP accounting range principally covered all economic activities of all resident units having center of economic interests within China's economic territory. The quarterly GDP data in this report is national data produced by the NBS, GDP data of Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Taiwan Province is not included.

1.3 Accounting Unit

GDP accounting mainly uses corporate units as the accounting units, in the process of accounting, the corporate units are divided into different industries according to their principal activities, and calculate the value-added of each industry separately, and then aggregate the value-added of every industry into GDP.

1.4 Accounting Steps

According to the requirement of timeliness of GDP accounting, China's annual GDP should be accounted twice, the first is the preliminary accounting of GDP, and the second is the final verification of GDP. Generally speaking, compared with the preliminary accounting, the final verification results will change.

1.4.1 Preliminary Accounting

Before 2015, China's quarterly GDP accounting adopts the cumulative accounting method, and the preliminary accounting of GDP from the first quarter to the fourth quarter is the annual preliminary accounting of GDP. Starting from the third quarter of 2015, China's quarterly GDP accounting has been changed to the quarterly accounting method, that is, accounting the GDP data of the first quarter, the second quarter, the third quarter and the fourth quarter respectively, and then adding the GDP data of each quarter to get the preliminary annual GDP accounting. The preliminary annual GDP accounting shall be completed before January 20 of the next year.

1.4.2 Final Verification

The final verification of annual GDP is usually completed around January of the next year. The final verification of annual GDP can make use of more comprehensive and reliable basic data, including the annual professional statistical report data of the National Bureau of statistics, annual financial statistical data of departments, financial final accounts data, etc. In the final verification process, the production method or income method is used to calculate the added value and GDP of various industries.

1.5 Related Laws and Regulations

GDP accounting was strictly complying with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China. At present, China's GDP was measured in accordance with the requirements of the China's System of National Accounts (CSNA) (2016), which has adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.

1.6 Confidentiality

According to the Article 9, Chapter I of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China, statistics institutions and statisticians shall keep confidential the State secrets, business secrets and personal information that are learned in the process of statistical work.

The staff related to national accounting will strictly keep the confidentiality of the statistical data of subject matter areas and administrative records data used in GDP accounting, so as to the GDP results of the current period before releasing.

1.7 User Needs

The main domestic users of quarterly GDP data are the government departments, research institutions, universities, trade associations, the media, and the public. In addition, the NBS regularly provides China’s quarterly GDP data to international organizations, such as the UN, the IMF, OECD, ADB, etc.

2. Accounting Methods of Quarterly GDP

2.1 Classifications

During quarterly GDP accounting, industry classification is carried out in two ways, according to the Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities of China and the Three Industries Classification Standard.

The first classification is the Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities, adopting the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” ( GB/T4754－2017) issued by national standard administrative department. Two-level classification is used in the actual accounting.

The first level of classification is basically the sectors in the Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities, and is divided into agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport, storage and post, accommodation and restaurants, finance, real estate, information transmission, software and information technology services, renting and leasing activities and business services, and other service industries. Of which, industry includes three sectors, i.e., mining and quarrying, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, heating power, gas and water. Other services include seven sectors, i.e., scientific research and development, technical services, management of water conservancy, environment and public facilities, resident services, repair and other services, education, health care and social works, culture, sports and entertainment, public administration, social security and social organizations. On the basis of the first level classification, the second level classification is subdivided into industry categories.

The difference between the industry classification of the annual GDP preliminary accounting and the industry classification of the annual GDP final verification is mainly the different degree of refinement of the second level classification.

The second classification is the Three Industries Classification, according to the Three Industries Classification Regulations enacted in 2018 by the NBS, divided into primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry. Primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries (excluding service industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries); secondary industry refers to mining and quarrying (excluding mining support service activities), manufacturing (excluding repair of  fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment), production and distribution of electricity, heating power, gas and water, construction; tertiary industry is service industry, and refers to the other industries except primary and secondary industry (excluding international organizations).

2.2 Sources of Data

During the quarterly GDP accounting, all available and applicable economic survey data are used for GDP accounting. Mainly including two parts:

The first is the national statistical survey data, which refers to all kinds of annual report data obtained from the statistical survey implemented by the national statistical system, including the annual report data of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction industry, wholesale and retail industry, accommodation and catering industry, real estate industry, service industry above Designated Size, household survey data, annual report data of population and labor wage statistics, and price statistics data Materials, etc.

The second is the annual financial statistics of departments, which refers to the annual financial statistics of the industry uniformly formulated by the National Bureau of statistics, collected by the relevant administrative departments and some state-owned enterprises, such as the annual financial statistics of enterprises or institutions under the Ministry of transport, the health commission and Sinopec Group.

Third, financial final accounts refer to the final accounts of financial revenues and expenditures compiled by the Ministry of finance, as well as the final accounts of administrative institutions affiliated to the central departments.

The fourth is the administrative records of administrative departments, mainly including the relevant data of the State Administration of Taxation, the people's Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other administrative departments, such as the local and foreign currency credit income and expenditure data of financial institutions of the people's Bank of China, the tax data of different industries of the State Administration of Taxation, etc.

2.3 Accounting Methods

The preliminary accounting method of annual GDP is the same as that of quarterly GDP, which will not be repeated here. The following is the final verification method of annual GDP.

2.3.1 Current Price Accounting Method

The current value-added of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery is calculated by production method, while the current value-added of other industries is calculated by income method.

2.3.2 Accounting Methods of Value-added at Constant Price

The fixed base period method is used to calculate the value-added of fixed price by industry. At present, the base period is changed every five years, and the base period from 2016 to 2020 is 2015.

Annual constant price GDP accounting mainly adopts price index reduction method and volume index extrapolation method.

2.3.2.1 Method of price index deflation

This method means directly deflating value-added at current price by using relevant price index, and calculating value-added at constant price. The accounting formula as is follows:

Value-added at constant price of some industry = value-added at current price of the industry÷ price index of the industry

2.3.2.2 Method of volume indices extrapolation.

This method means calculating the growth rate of value-added at constant price by using the growth rate of relevant volume indices, then multiplying value-added at constant price in the same period of last year and the calculated growth rate of value-added at constant price, to obtain current value-added at constant price. The accounting formula is as follows:

Value-added at constant price of some industry = value-added at constant price of the industry in the same period of last year × (1+ growth rate of value-added at constant price of the industry)

Of which, the growth rate of value-added at constant price is determined according to the growth rate of relevant volume indices this year, as well as the quantitative relation between the growth rate of value-added at constant price and the growth rate of relevant volume indices in previous years.

3. Revision of Quarterly GDP Data

3.1 The Necessity for Revision

Preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP data has a strong demand for timeliness, generally it is released about 20 days after the year. At this time, because a large number of annual financial data can not meet the requirements of annual GDP accounting in time, the basic data for accounting annual GDP preliminary figures are monthly data and quarterly data, and the annual GDP data calculated based on these data has a large calculation component. After that, with the increase of basic data, especially annual financial data, GDP data should be revised timely according to more comprehensive and reliable basic data according to the common practice of various countries.

3.2 Revision Procedures

According to the latest reform of the NBS in GDP accounting and data release system, China’s quarterly GDP accounting has two steps, which are preliminary accounting and final verification. The final verification is the revision of the preliminary accounting data. After the national economic census finds new basic data that have a great impact on GDP data, or changes in calculation methods and classification standards, the annual GDP historical data should also be revised.

4. Quality Assessment on Quarterly GDP Data

4.1 Assessment on Basic Data

For the statistical data of subject matter areas and the administrative records data used in GDP accounting, the relevant departments will examine their quality to ensure that the data reasonably reflect the actual situation of economic development. After getting these basic data, The GDP accounting department will examine the completeness and accuracy of the data once again to ensure that these data are consistent with the GDP accounting concepts and requirements.

4.2 Assessment on Accounting Methods

In GDP accounting process, the GDP accounting department will revise China's quarterly GDP accounting method in accordance with the actual situation of China’s continually developing economy, and the standards of national accounting which are constantly improving, so as to ensure the rationality of accounting methods.

4.3 Assessment on Accounting Results

After calculating the annual GDP data, it is necessary to test the coordination of GDP and its sub data, GDP and other accounting data, GDP and relevant professional statistical data and department statistical data, so as to ensure the coordination and matching of GDP data and other main relevant data.

4.4 Comparability of Data

4.4.1 International Comparability

China's System of National Accounts (2016) adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008，therefore the GDP data are internationally comparable.

4.4.2 Comparability of Time Series

After the national census or the change of calculation method and classification standard, not only the GDP data of that year are re calculated, but also the historical GDP data are revised. Therefore, the time series of annual GDP data published since 1952 are comparable.

5. Quarterly GDP Data Release

5.1 Release Date

The preliminary annual GDP accounting is generally released around January 20 of the next year, and the final annual GDP verification is generally released in January of the next year.

5.2 Release Methods

The annual GDP preliminary accounting figures are published in the annual national economic operation press conference and the website of the National Bureau of statistics (www.stats.gov.cn). The final verified annual GDP is published on the website of the National Bureau of statistics (www.stats.gov.cn). At the same time, the final verified annual GDP is still in the next year's "China Statistical Digest" And China Statistical Yearbook; national statistical database (http://data.stats.gov.cn). Updates will be synchronized.

Source: <http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202212/t20221227_1891279.html>